United States. BSRIA research indicates that the U.S. market value for package air conditioning solutions increased by more than 14% in 2018 to reach $20.4 billion.
Market growth saw a more than 6% increase in volumes, although prices rose above this level, driven by warm weather and a relatively healthy U.S. economy and the residential sector benefited from continued consumer confidence.
BSRIA estimates that 2019 will see further growth of just under 4% in terms of volume, but more than 8% in terms of value, to exceed US$22 billion this year. VRF will continue to experience strong growth and, although small compared to overall air conditioning sales, it remains the fourth largest VRF market in the world, albeit still from a low base, while mini splits will again grow by double digits. In contrast, PTAC is forecast to decline in volume, but is still expected to reach $379 million by 2023.
Pipeline splits still dominate, but growth is modest at around 3%, while the minisplit market remains small, with less than 10% of the U.S. pipeline split market.
The roofing market is relatively mature and is expected to experience modest volume growth with a CAGR to 2023 of less than 3%. However, the United States still accounts for 90% of the roofing units sold in the world.
Ongoing trade disputes, especially with China, are raising the specter of higher tariffs that could raise prices for imported units. However, demand for more sophisticated products, including smart controls and IoT functionality, could also boost purchase prices.
The imminent replacement of R4210a refrigerants is also raising questions about the most appropriate replacement. Currently, there is no clarity regarding regulatory policies regarding replacements.
With political opinion increasingly polarized in the U.S., attitudes toward climate change and how to respond to it are one of the key points of discussion between Republicans and Democrats. Therefore, the outcome of the 2020 presidential election could have a major impact on the regulatory environment for air conditioning as an energy-hungry sector. At the same time, regulatory policies applied at the state level will continue to have a significant impact, and these vary considerably depending on the party in control and its priorities.
Despite the progressive convergence of the ductless systems, ducts, and packages market toward smarter, more integrated solutions, the vast room air conditioning market will remain resilient in the United States. The market for window units, almost eliminated in other parts of the world, remains dominant in the U.S., due to construction and specification practices.
Efficiency, greener products, smart revolution, and convergence of technologies have been the major drivers of the air conditioning market in the United States over the past five years.
Since average electricity prices in the United States are less than half the European average, saving money on energy bills has not been a high priority for American consumers, except in select states like California and the Northeast. The relatively long payback period for more energy-efficient air conditioning systems is a disincentive for consumers, for whom "smarter" features like connected access and voice control may be more attractive. However, the commercial AC market seems to be more receptive to energy savings.
Connected functions, including remote control and monitoring, are increasingly valued. For commercial AC solutions, this can provide greater resiliency and a reduction in service and maintenance costs. However, this tends to apply more to more expensive and business-critical AC systems.
Future growth will depend largely on the health of the U.S. economy. And also from the political agenda regarding energy policy and also trade and tariffs, which emerges from the 2020 elections.
