International. According to a study by IHS Research, smart thermostats will dominate this market in five to ten years. These once-disconnected devices now have the potential to be the hub of many Internet of Things (IoT) devices, which act independently and with limited user input.
An aggressive growth projection of 15 million smart thermostats sold annually in North America by the end of 2019 fails to take into account the following mitigating factors:
Connected thermostats (i.e. thermostats that connect to the Internet, but do not make decisions on heating and cooling settings), will remain attractive to multi-system operators and home security providers, as they can install intelligence around these types of devices.
Between 2016 and 2019, the number of single-family and multi-family homes in North America is expected to increase slightly, from 145.8 million to 150.3 million.
People who need to replace the thermostat, rather than those who want to replace one, are more likely to worry about pricing, rather than having additional functionality.
In the worst-case scenario, the current 21% smart thermostat penetration of annual thermostat unit sales would remain unchanged in 2019. The products would be priced too high, making connected thermostats the products of choice for consumers.
At best, 65% of the thermostat unit's annual sales would be smart thermostats; however, reaching this level would be difficult, if not entirely realistic, as it would require a full 3% of all thermostat owners to replace a working thermostat. In addition, all thermostats that fail each year would have to be replaced by smart thermostats, which would not happen for a number of reasons (for example, the office and homeowners tend to install the cheapest products, to save on overhead).
