The recovery of the global economy faces the threat of a "catastrophic energy crisis" as most major oil fields have already exceeded their maximum production capacity, warns Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA).
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In an interview with the British newspaper The Independent, Birol warns that there is currently a "real risk" of a crisis in oil supply after 2010, when demand is expected to rebound as a result of the gradual global economic recovery expected next year. In his opinion, what is necessary to obtain new supplies is not being done in the face of the decline in production in existing fields. "It will be especially important, since the recovery of the global economy will still be very fragile and vulnerable. Many believe that there will be a recovery in the coming years, but it will be a very slow and fragile recovery in which we face the risk that it will be strangled by high oil prices," he says.
In this regard, the IEA economist warns that Western economies will face the fact that the few producing countries with significant crude oil reserves will substantially increase their influence on markets if this energy crisis occurs after 2010. Likewise, Birol warns of the impact on inflation of this potential crisis in the supply of oil. "If we see greater restrictions on the market, street people will suffer higher prices, much higher than today, which will have an impact on the economy, especially if these restrictions on markets occur in the coming years," says Birol.
The chief economist of the IEA warns that the main oil production fields have already exceeded their maximum supply capacity, so he warns of the need to look for alternative sources of supply to meet the demand for crude oil. In this sense, the IEA calculates that the decline in oil production in the existing fields has accelerated to 6.7% per year, compared to the 3.7% estimated in 2007, and points out that production in most countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has peaked, so it concludes the era of cheap oil.
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Authors: TECNOSOSTENIBLE - Engineering of comfort and energy efficiency
