International. The International Energy Agency presented its usual report related to the global energy outlook for 2019. The conclusions of this report are presented below:
Deep disparities define today's energy world. The dissonance between well-supplied oil markets and growing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties. The gap between the ever-increasing amounts of greenhouse gas emissions that are produced and the inadequacy of policies put in place to curb those emissions in line with international climate goals. The gap between the promise of energy for all and the lack of access to electricity for 850 million people worldwide.
World Energy Outlook 2019, the flagship publication of the International Energy Agency, explores these increasingly detailed fractures. It explains the impact of today's decisions on tomorrow's energy systems, and outlines a pathway that enables the world to meet climate, energy access and air quality goals, while maintaining a strong focus on energy reliability and affordability for a growing global population.
The report indicates that, as always, decisions made by governments remain critical to the future of the energy system. This is evident in the divergences between WEO scenarios that chart different routes the world could follow in the coming decades, depending on the policies, investments, technologies, and other options that decision-makers follow today. Together, these scenarios seek to address a fundamental problem: how to get from where we are now to where we want to go.
The scenario the world is in right now is shown in the Current Policy Scenario, which provides a baseline picture of how global energy systems would evolve if governments do not make changes to their existing policies. In this scenario, energy demand increases by 1.3% a year until 2040, resulting in tensions in all aspects of energy markets and a strong continuous upward march in energy-related emissions.
The Declared Policy Scenario, formerly known as the New Policy Scenario, incorporates current policy intentions and objectives, in addition to existing measures. The goal is to hold a mirror of today's plans and illustrate their consequences. The future outlined in this scenario is still far from the goal of a secure and sustainable energy future. It describes a world in 2040 in which hundreds of millions of people remain without access to electricity, where premature pollution-related deaths remain around today's high levels, and where CO2 emissions would block the severe impacts of climate change.
The Sustainable Development Scenario indicates what needs to be done differently to fully achieve the climate and other energy goals that policymakers around the world have set for themselves. Achieving this scenario, a path fully aligned with the Paris Agreement's goal of keeping rising global temperatures below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, requires rapid and widespread changes across all parts of the energy system. Steep emissions cuts are achieved thanks to multiple fuels and technologies that provide efficient and cost-effective energy services for all.
"What is crystal clear in this year's World Energy Outlook is that there is no single or simple solution to transform global energy systems," said Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA. "Many technologies and fuels have a role to play in all sectors of the economy. For this to happen, we need strong leadership from policymakers, as governments have the clearest responsibility to act and have the greatest scope to shape the future."
In the scenario of established policies, energy demand increases by 1% per year until 2040. Low-carbon sources, led by solar PV, supply more than half of this growth, with natural gas accounting for another third. Oil demand flattens in the 2030s, and coal's use edges are decreasing. Some parts of the energy sector, led by electricity, are undergoing rapid transformations. Some countries, especially those with "net zero" aspirations, go far in reshaping all aspects of their supply and consumption.
However, the momentum behind clean energy is insufficient to offset the effects of an expanding global economy and a growing population. The increase in emissions decreases but does not peak before 2040.
View the full report by clicking here.
Source: International Energy Agency.
