On September 9, in a presentation during the Food Marketing Institute's Energy and Technical Services Conference, Dave Godwin, an environmental engineer at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), made a blunt revelation: "In 2020, only supplies that are in inventory or are recovered from R-22, they will be the ones that are available." The announcement was made in front of an auditorium made up of engineers and supermarket suppliers.In an interview with Godwin to The News, he said the so-called "service queue" will likely include the HCFC-123 used in some chiller applications. These comments have clarified some questions raised in previous EPA presentations on HCFC phase-out, in which some attendees thought the queue might primarily include R-22.
Mandatory elimination of HCFCs is currently at 65% of the baseline year that was 1996. It will drop to 25% of the baseline in 2010 and 10% in 2015. Generally speaking, new production of HCFCs by 2020 will fall to 0.5% of 1996 levels.
One concern, Godwin noted at the conference referred to, is that there will be a possible supply shortfall in early 2015 for R-22; "There is currently no cut in R-22 supplies, but I do expect a decrease for 2015 and more for 2016." The graphs shown in its presentation offer a better balance between supply and demand since the old R-22 equipment either goes out of operation or is replaced with other alternatives.
Comments emerged among the audience that there will be no decreases in supply, as the rising cost of R-22 will motivate more users to accumulate the refrigerant they already have and continue to use the recovery option.
