By Alejandra García Vélez
Traditionally the end of the year is characterized by the joy of the Christmas holidays and the expectation of a new year that begins, however 2008 ended for many with a large dose of uncertainty and fear of what 2009 will bring to the world economy. For virtually no country has escaped the impact of the crisis, although some nations cope better than others. In fact, according to the World Bank, of the 20 developing countries whose economies have suffered the most from the crisis, six belong to Europe and Central Asia and eight to Latin America and the Caribbean.
In addition, the World Bank forecasts that: "in 2009 import demand will decline by 3.4% in high-income countries, while net private debt and capital flows to developing countries will contract by US$1 trillion in 2007 to about US$530 billion in 2009, or from 7.7% to 3% of developing countries' gross domestic product (GDP). As a result, the pace of investment growth in developing countries is estimated to slow sharply, with only 3.5 per cent increasing in middle-income countries, compared with an increase of 13.2 per cent in 2007."
In addition to the above, in developing countries, the rate of growth is expected to reach 4.5 per cent in 2009, down from 7.9 per cent and 6.3 per cent in 2007 and 2008. Overall, global GDP is estimated to increase by just 0.9% in 2009, the lowest since 1970, when the data began to be recorded.
Also worrying to the industry is the fact that crude oil prices fell from $143 a barrel in early July, to less than $50 a barrel in mid-November and a low of $35 in January. The fall in price was due to a decline in demand, the appreciation of the dollar, and concerns about the outlook for demand as a result of the financial shock. Other commodities also declined in price dramatically because these markets are increasingly linked to crude oil through production costs and biofuel development. For example, the World Bank states that the metals and minerals price index is projected to fall by 25% in 2009 and an additional 5% in 2010, compared to 2008.
Compressors
To talk about the prospects in terms of the compressor market, AC/R Latin America will have the opinion of Renato Majarão, regional marketing manager of Danfoss Brazil, and Newto da Silva, education and training coordinator of the same company.
Majarão says that the commercialization of compressors has been growing, but that the development of sales depends on compression technology, according to him in Danfoss highlighted the sales of scroll compressors and compressors with reciprocal hermetic technology, which had significant increases.
Da silva, for his part, highlighted the importance of research and new developments for the positioning of a company in the market, as he affirms that by constantly modernizing production processes it is possible to ensure that compressors are manufactured with the least amount of resources and impact on the environment.
Precisely the concern for the environment, the increase in energy prices and the general increase in the global demand for saving products have driven an increase in the level of its research and development activities, said Newto da Silva and added that given the growing need for products and solutions for use with natural refrigerants or with reduced values of ODP and GWP, the goal in compressor production is to achieve energy efficiency, reduce the amount of refrigerant used, and use natural refrigerants in applications where possible. Other very important points are the reduction of noise level and a high reliability in the product.
Among the latest innovations, the use of variable speed stands out, allowing an adaptation of the compressor capacity to the actual thermal load. In this way it is possible to work with optimized pressures with better efficiency (high POPs), keeping the system pressures constant or very close to the optimum point. The Danfoss official said.
Regarding the current market situation, da Silva revealed that in the countries in which Danfoss is present (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela and Mexico) the commercial refrigeration, air conditioning and OEM's segments are the ones that contribute the most to compressor sales.
RIP
