International. The global solar photovoltaic (PV) market will recover from single-digit growth in 2018 to 25 percent in 2019, reaching 129 gigawatts of solar installations, according to global business information provider IHS Markit.
This revived growth comes mainly from markets outside of China, which are projected to increase by 43 percent in 2019. Spain, Vietnam and other countries have 2019 deadlines for the completion of projects, as the fall in module prices at the end of 2018 has led to an increase in demand.
Given current signs of development activity, China, the world's largest PV market, could grow 2 percent in 2019, after reaching 45 gigawatts in 2018. Most of these installations will be carried out in the second half of the year, according to IHS Markit's latest "PV Facility Tracking".
"At this time, the outlook for China remains very uncertain, as the new support scheme for PV has not yet been announced," said Josefin Berg, research and analysis manager at IHS Markit. "Plans to focus policy more on unsubsidized PV systems could delay deployment in the short term, unless strict construction deadlines are imposed to stimulate 2019 demand."
The United States is forecast to overtake India in 2019, to once again become the second largest PV market. As 30 percent of the investment tax credit (ITC) ends this year, some projects will rush to meet them. However, the safe harbor provisions introduced in 2018, which require a 5 percent investment by the end of 2019 to enjoy ITC's full rate, have also changed projected installations from 2019 to beyond. "The increase in project development activity shows that the years after 2019 will be booming," Berg said.
In India, the push towards lower tender prices, at a time when components have become more expensive through safeguard duties, has delayed several tenders and could shake up the future Indian solar PV market. Europe is the region with the largest rebound in the last year, after the minimum import price on modules ended. Installations grew by 23 percent in 2018, reaching 12 gigawatts and are projected to exceed 19 gigawatts in 2019. The revitalized utility market in Spain alone means that facilities reach almost 60 percent of the growth in the region.
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